Who runs Syria – and what does it mean for its Christians?

Following the seismic events in Syria, we look at the group that have captured a series of major cities, including the capital Damascus, and how you can pray.

The world was shocked last weekend as Syria changed, seemingly overnight.

Rebels took over the capital, Damascus, and Syria’s leader, Bashar al-Assad, fled for Russia. He’d led the country for more than 20 years, taking over from his father, who’d led for nearly 30 years. Now, for the first time in almost 50 years, Syria won’t be ruled by an Assad.

On 29 November, Syrian fighters of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an opposition group supported by Türkiye, reached the centre of Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city. A day later, HTS forces headed towards the city of Hama, and by 5 December, they took control of Hama. Eventually, they also captured Homs and made their way to Damascus. By 7 December, Assad had fled and the rebel groups had declared victory, raising the new Syrian flag over Damascus.

The rebel takeover was swift – although the ground had been laid through nearly a decade of civil war.

But who are these rebel groups? And what does the new political reality mean for Syrian Christians?

Who are the new leaders of Syria?

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (roughly translated, the group’s name means “Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant”) started in 2011 under another name: Jabhat al-Nusra, which was allied to al-Qaeda. The BBC says the group was ‘one of the most effective and deadly of the groups ranged against President Assad’ during the beginning of the Syrian Civil War.

In 2016, the group cut ties with al-Qaeda, and eventually renamed itself in 2017 when it merged with other rebel groups. After opposition groups were driven out of Aleppo in 2016, HTS – who are supported by Türkiye – mainly controlled the area west of Aleppo around the city of Idlib. They are still regarded a terrorist organisation by the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom.

HTS has an Islamic agenda – they have long wanted to oust Assad and Hezbollah (the Islamist Lebanese group supported by Iran) and install Islamic rule in Syria. Under HTS-control in Idlib, Christian clergy are not allowed to walk outside in any clothing that makes them recognisable as priests or pastors. Crosses have been removed from church buildings.

However, there are no current reports of HTS-fighters threatening Christians or other groups, and public declarations from the group suggest they are trying to rebrand themselves as tolerant of minorities and human rights. The leader of HTS, Ahmed al-Sharaa (who previously went under an assumed name, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani), even told CNN that HTS has ‘gone out of its way to publicly tell Christians and other religious and ethnic minorities that they will live safely under its rule’.

“No one has the right to erase another group,” al-Sharaa told CNN. “These sects have coexisted in this region for hundreds of years, and no one has the right to eliminate them.”

The latest publicly available set of rules from HTS’s leadership in Damascus also suggests there is some hope for a more moderate Islamist rule. These rules include a ban on revenge between Syrians, a guarantee of freedom for media outlets and a ban on restrictions for women’s clothing, which includes Islamic dress.

“The leadership transition in Syria under HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa has provoked mixed responses,” explains Henriette Kats, an Open Doors research analyst on the Middle East. “While he promises safety and peaceful coexistence for all minorities, including Christians, doubts persist due to HTS’s jihadist origins and track record of human rights abuses.”

What does this mean for Christians?

Christians, like other Syrians, feel unsecure as they don’t know what to expect. In general, they are afraid that the change of control might have a negative impact on the freedom they had as Christians. But the main feeling for believers in Syria is uncertainty – there’s simply no way to know what the future holds.

Assad was widely seen as a tyrant, which explains the jubilation many Syrians have expressed to international media since his downfall. But the replacement of a tyrant can be tricky and lead to a power vacuum. This is what happened in Iraq in 2007, when Saddam Hussein was deposed and the rise of so-called Islamic State (IS) emerged from it.

This is what Christians pray will not happen. There is room for cautious optimism, particularly since HTS is saying many of the right things. But right now, the future is simply unknown.

“For Christians and other minorities, the future remains precarious, as past hardships in Idlib and concerns that these assurances may be a tactic to gain initial public support raise questions about long-term stability,” explains Kats.